(from suck.com aug 1 1996) |
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| In the music industry there is life |
| before Soundscan, and life after |
| Soundscan. Life on the Billboard |
| charts before Soundscan was a |
| prototypical Scorsese movie, |
| dominated by the sleazy triumvirate |
| of radio programmers, record chain |
| executives, and Casey Kasem. Life |
| after Soundscan is blissfully |
| bit-driven, with record sales |
| instantly beamed through the ether |
| from record stores straight to some |
| air-conditioned, Halon gas-protected |
| computer room. |
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| Like any new technology is bound to |
| do, Soundscan has spawned a new job |
| category at every major label - |
| specially-trained spreadsheet jocks |
| crunching the raw album sales |
| numbers to tweak market share here, |
| mind share there, and wallet share |
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everywhere else. Their ultimate |
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goal: maximize the lifetime value of |
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any particular artist. |
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The result? Reconstituted adult rock |
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masquerading as hip hop. |
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But I'm going to put all of those |
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data-massaging monkeys out of |
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business. Not with any new |
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harebrained tracking scheme or |
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business model, but with an entirely |
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new methodology of b(r)and scenario |
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planning. Think of it as the place |
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where David Geffen meets Carl Sagan. |
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It's the new Astral Theory of Rock. |
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During literally days of research, |
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I've discovered that the life cycle |
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of a star mimics that of, well, a |
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star. This flash of brilliance has |
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led me to believe that those Excel |
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worker bees could someday be |
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replaced by a few, highly-paid |
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quantum physicists, or at least some |
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folks who took Physics for Poets at |
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the local community college. In |
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order to predict the lifetime value |
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of a star, they'll just need to |
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follow the easy-to-remember, |
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five-step life cycle of a true |
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celestial body: Birth, Radiation, |
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Exhaustion, Collapse, Black Hole. |
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The Birth of the star is easy to |
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predict, and shouldn't concern our |
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new breed of record industry |
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knowledge workers. They should be |
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focused on future record sales, not |
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how the star got there in the first |
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place. All A&R schleps worth their |
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salt know that some combination of |
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bloodthirsty local fans ("I knew |
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them first!"), sleazy record |
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producers ("Sure, pal. Full creative |
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control. Whatever you say."), and |
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alcoholic managers ("But I landed |
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you your first paying gig, |
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asshole."), mixed together in a |
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crowded, humid club in some |
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Godforsaken part of town, usually |
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creates enough pressure and mass to |
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form the infant star. The new |
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science of star tracking, however, |
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will prove that what happens |
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"before" a star is born is |
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irrelevant, since "before" is merely |
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a temporal concept, and has no |
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discernible effect on future record |
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sales. |
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During most of a star's lifetime, |
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nuclear fusion in the core generates |
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electromagnetic Radiation. In other |
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words, the star just plain shines. |
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The Radiation phase is the most |
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profitable period of a star's life. |
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The highly perceptive star tracker |
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will need to keep tabs on the |
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quantity and quality of a star's |
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shine. Michael Jackson's sequined |
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glove shines. Paul Simon's bald spot |
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shines. Paula Abdul's lycra does not |
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shine. Furthermore, new |
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"astronomers" should be wary of the |
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"Glistening Effect." Glistening |
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should not be confused with shining. |
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Case in point: Kenny G's saxophone |
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glistens. Michael Bolton's hair |
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shines. |
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In outer space, a star survives by |
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balancing the outward force of |
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shining with the inward pull of |
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gravity caused by the star's mass. |
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Back in Los Angeles, entertainment |
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physicists should note the "balance |
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of fame" practiced by Madonna, a |
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perpetually radiating star. She |
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always seems to have an equal number |
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of bodyguards (a show of outward |
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force) and basketball players (an |
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inward pull of gravity) at her beck |
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and call. |
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If the balance of fame is upset, the |
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star begins the Exhaustion phase. |
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During Exhaustion, the star stops |
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shining, gravitation compresses mass |
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inward, and the star starts feeding |
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on itself. Van Halen is in a |
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prototypical exhaustion phase. The |
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core of the star has contracted |
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(Sammy's out), and it is allowing |
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their remaining nuclear material to |
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be used as fuel (Dave's back, but |
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only for the greatest hits record). |
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Exhaustion inevitably leads to |
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Collapse. The Collapse phase may |
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last over a period of hundreds of |
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Entertainment Tonight segments, |
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during which all remaining fuel is |
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used up. Sting has been in Collapse |
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for years. I've traced the precise |
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beginning of his collapse to the |
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Police song "Mother," which prompted |
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millions of people to learn to |
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accurately program their CD players. |
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How far the star collapses, and into |
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what kind of object (VH1 |
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spokesperson, singer of country |
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tunes in odd time signatures, role |
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in touring company of Grease) is |
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determined by the star's final mass |
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and the remaining outward pressure |
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that the burnt-up nuclear residue |
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can muster. Or, in Sting's case, how |
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many jazz musicians he can fit on |
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the head of a pin. |
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If the star is sufficiently massive, |
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it will collapse into a Black Hole. |
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The rocket scientists among us will |
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immediately recognize the KISS |
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revival tour as the largest black |
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hole the industry has ever seen. In |
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the center of the black hole lies |
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the singularity (Gene Simmons's |
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tongue), where matter is crushed to |
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infinite density, and the curvature |
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of spacetime is extreme. Which |
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explains why millions of people keep |
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expecting to hear "Beth" on the |
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radio, and to be reunited with their |
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7th-grade car pools. |
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Any 12-year old with an Einstein |
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t-shirt can tell you that stars |
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surrounding the Black Hole run the |
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risk of being sucked in. But when |
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the geek with E=MC^2 blazened across |
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his hollowed chest happens to be |
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toting an HP 12-C, look out. Because |
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a single Black Hole could suck in an |
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entire star system, creating revenue |
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potential unheard of anywhere else. |
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(Imagine Carl Sagan saying "billions |
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and billions," and you're somewhere |
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in the ballpark.) It's not a |
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coincidence that the KISS tour |
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spawned reunions of Foriegner, Styx, |
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Kansas, the Scorpions and REO |
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Speedwagon. |
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Finally, the labels have always |
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struggled with the issue of star |
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retirement. Do they ship them to |
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Vegas? Set them up in rock operas? |
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Or simply send them on some endless |
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talk radio tour? If the Astral |
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Theory proves correct, their |
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problems could be solved. Certain |
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physicists believe that if a star |
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survives the whirling vortex of the |
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black hole, it may find itself in an |
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alternate, parallel universe. |
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Like Europe. |